Friday, October 23, 2009
"[I]t is now time for us to assert and take our position as the dominant party in Zimbabwe. In taking this path, we are guided by the fact that we are the trustees of the people's mandate and therefore the only one with the mandate to remain in government.<...> However, it is our right to disengage from a dishonest and unreliable partner. In this regard, whilst being government, we shall forthwith disengage from ZANU-PF <...> until such time as confidence and respect is restored amongst us." (Zimbabwean prime minister Morgan Tsvangirai on his decision to suspend cooperation with the political party of President Robert Mugabe, 16 October, 2009).
The dilemma faced by Zimbabwe's prime minister, Morgan Tsvangirai, is a thorny one. He garnered the majority of votes in the first round of the presidential elections in March 2008 but chose to boycott the run-off due to the persecution of his supporters by the incumbent president, Robert Mugabe. In January 2009, following the negotiations spearheaded by neighboring South Africa, Mr. Tsvangirai, 57, was persuaded to form a unity government with the 85 year-old Mugabe, who single-handedly ruled the country since it gained independence in 1980. Mr. Mugabe's tenure was plagued by rampant corruption and deterioration of Zimbabwe's public health system, punctuated by mass emigration of its professional workforce due to spiking unemployment, starvation and, most recently, an outbreak of cholera. Mr. Tsvangirai reluctantly entered into a power-sharing agreement with his rival, claiming that it was his party--the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC)--that won in the elections, and not Mr. Mugabe's Zimbabwe African National Unity-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF). The truce between the long-time opponents have proved short-lived, and Mr. Tsvangirai announced his disengagement from ZANU-PF last week, accusing Mr. Mugabe of failing to honor his promises to form a fully functioning government and take steps to enforce the rule of law and strengthen the economy. Reportedly, the last straw for Mr. Tsvangirai was the arrest of MDC's treasurer and Zimbabwe's Deputy Minister of Agriculture, Roy Bennett. The arrest was one in a series of ZANU-PF military wing's continued assaults on Zimbabwe's white farmers, typically followed by the forced appropriation of their land lots by the government.
Mr. Tsvangirai broke off the ties with ZANU-PF because he could no longer reconcile his human rights activist's agenda with ZANU-PF's despicable policies. He claims to still be a part of the government and continue pushing for his agenda to be implemented. But -- and here is the dilemma, in my view-- it is clear that his political co-existence with Mr. Mugabe is virtually impossible. Their artificial union failed to prevent a political crisis, as some had hoped, and it continues to hold back Zimbabwe's development since many foreign governments have been unwilling to provide aid and investment to a country with the main culprit of its misery still in power. Is Mr. Tsvangirai really hopeful that real change is possible under the circumstances, or is he just doing his best to hold up his end of the bipartisan Global Political Agreement?
It seems to me that, in light of the last week's developments, the regional powers and western democracies will have to choose one of the two politicians to support. While the United States is likely to favor dealing with democratically-minded Mr. Tsvangirai, South Africa has so far appeared to be backing Mr. Mugabe, possibly fearing that his demise would further escalate the exodus of the impoverished Zimbabweans and set loose the bellicose pro-independence war veterans, whom Mr. Mugabe nurtured and elevated to an elite class through his system of generous, taxpayer-supported handouts.
Anyone has other thoughts on the possible outcome of this split? I'd be interested in learning what you have to say.
Well it is a self -inflicted dilemna. ZANU PF needed time to regroup and see survival options.. MDC wanted to test the ropes of power and in the process maneuver their way into an advantageous position. The real dilemma is that the MDC is being used by ZANU PF to arrest economic decline, which was really ZANU pf's enemy number one. MDC is enemy number 3, while the West and their white farmer relatives in Zim are enemy number 2. ZANU is more worried about the West, not MDC. Tsvangirai won the first round becoz of the economy, but in terms of being smart, Zimbabweans would prefer Bob.
To be continued!!!
Tondie
Anonymous, thanks for your comments. Can you please explain your statement that "MDC is being used by ZANU PF to arrest economic decline..?" Also,what exactly is ZANU-PF worried about when it comes to the West?
First I want to commend you for a very objective piece about my country.I am a Zimbabwean and in Harare.The issue of Zimbabwe is a very complex situation created by a multiplicity of historical compromises not only by us(Zimbabweans) but also by our colonial masters (UK).Had they not pardoned Smith when he declared Unilateral Independence, had they not chose ZANU PF over ZAPU in 1980 (the Lancaster Hse conference) had they appropriately addressed the 'land tanure clause' once and for all, had Nkomo (PF ZAPU president) not signed the unity accord (which he did under duress coz 20 000 people were perishing as Mugabe's man (Five Brigade) where butchering the Matebele people. Alas Saddam only killed less than a thousand (1983) and the whole US/UK power descended.Had Morgan not entered into these talks , had he not signed the GPA in January 2009.MAYBE THIS COUNTRY WILL BE DIFFERENT.
Now turning to the current stalemate in GNU,SADC was tricked into drafting an agreement which had many holes than a French Pie, and when it was drafted into the constitutions certain clauses were altered,others were left and this is where Mugabe insists that there were not specific areas of action.Morgan is frustrated and SADC seems tired.He is left with no option , if he pulls out there is going to be a constitutional crisis,but however , when the country slips back into misery ZANU PF would tell the masses that MDC and its leader have disowned the country and listen to the west bla bla bla ,regime change has failed etc.If he stays put he will loose political muscle ,and get approval from the population, but never from the international audience.
All said and done, we the people on the ground are tired of politics that has affected all most every sphere of life-we pray and hope of a day when we would live and never have to worry who is governing and what they are doing.We just want to be left to make small decisions without having to fear for the future.But as long as our politicians are fighting we the grass shall be stamped on big tyme
Dear Analyst, thank you for your thoughtful response. I am wondering how likely it is for SADC and/or US/UK to put pressure on Mugabe to step down, since this seems to be the only way at the moment to restore normalcy in the country? Is this the route you think these powers are going to take?
Post new comment